Western and Central Africa
Eastern and Southern Africa
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Tuesday, 08 Dec. 2015
The El Nino event which is active since February is foreseen to almost
certainly last until the end of the year, and possibly up to spring or early
summer 2016. Its intensity is increasing, with a peak expected in the last
quarter of 2015. Potentially this El Niño could rank among the top three
strongest episodes ever.
The climatic changes produced affect already
the cashew crops development in the Southern hemisphere:
Africa, the most important impact period is expected to take place be from
October to December, enhancing the "short rains" season (the "long
rains" period is usually lasting from March to May and it is much less El
Niño - sensitive).
The Tanzania Meteorological Agency announced by
mid-September that above normal, heavy rains should fall from mid-October to
December in the northern parts of the country and in Pemba and Unguja Islands.
In areas with a single rainfall season, the rains are expected to last from
October to end November.
The Kenya Meteorological Department of the
Ministry of Agriculture, National Resources and Regional Authorities warned
that enhanced rainfall caused by El Niño may occur during the short
rains period over cashew-growing counties of the former Coast Province
(Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu) and Eastern Kenya counties (Tharaka). The onset is
expected during the first to second week of October and cessation during the
fourth week of December. Farmers were made aware of potential outbursts of
cashew powdery mildew disease during this period (the disease became endemic in
Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale districts).
In Mozambique, El Niño is associated
with drought during what is normally the wettest period of the year, from
January to March. This year Mozambique is facing a very strong El Niño spell.
Large floods provoked by El Niño occurred in January. The 2015/16 seasonal
forecast released by the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) indicates
that from October to December 2015, the bulk of the country - with the
exception northern parts, stands increased chances of receiving near-normal to
below-normal rainfall. According to the INAM forecast, the northern parts of
the country (Cabo Delgado, Niassa, Nampula and Zambézia provinces) are
expecting near- to above-normal rains during this period. During cashew harvest
period which occurs from October to February/March, there are increased chances
for the occurrence of near- to above-normal rainfall in northern of the
country, while in south and central Mozambique there are increased chances that
the rainfall received will be near- to below-normal.In Southern Africa,
including South Africa and the southern half of Mozambique, the period December
to February should be dryer than normal. Several areas of South Africa are very
dry already, after a failed monsoon last year; Free State and North West
provinces have already been declared drought disaster since mid-September.
Rainfall in Indonesia was well below average. In September, six
Indonesian provinces declared a state of drought emergency. The El Niño-related
dry conditions have set the stage for devastating forest fires.
Brazil, the Central and North-eastern States recorded droughts and very
high temperatures since June, with 940 cities declared in an emergency
situation because of drought. In the Southern States, storms and heavy rains
have taken a toll with over 30 cities having enacted emergency and public
calamity situations. The country is likely to experience a moderate El Niño
until February/March 2016. The states of North and Northeast (Ceará, Pará,
Piauí) should witness a severe reduction of up to 50% in the volume of rainfall
during the entire December through February period. In the Southeast, drought
can begin in December and stretch until February 2016, mainly in the south of
Minas Gerais and São Paulo.
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