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Cashews Quarterly Bulletin – Third quarter 2015

  • Cashews Quarterly Bulletin – Third quarter 2015

    by Market Insider

    Tuesday, 08 Dec. 2015

    Excerpt

    El-Niño developments

    The El Nino event which is active since February is foreseen to almost certainly last until the end of the year, and possibly up to spring or early summer 2016. Its intensity is increasing, with a peak expected in the last quarter of 2015. Potentially this El Niño could rank among the top three strongest episodes ever. 

    The climatic changes produced affect already the cashew crops development in the Southern hemisphere:

    In East Africa, the most important impact period is expected to take place be from October to December, enhancing the "short rains" season (the "long rains" period is usually lasting from March to May and it is much less El Niño - sensitive).

    The Tanzania Meteorological Agency announced by mid-September that above normal, heavy rains should fall from mid-October to December in the northern parts of the country and in Pemba and Unguja Islands. In areas with a single rainfall season, the rains are expected to last from October to end November.

    The Kenya Meteorological Department of the Ministry of Agriculture, National Resources and Regional Authorities warned that enhanced rainfall caused by El Niño may occur during the short rains period over cashew-growing counties of the former Coast Province (Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu) and Eastern Kenya counties (Tharaka). The onset is expected during the first to second week of October and cessation during the fourth week of December. Farmers were made aware of potential outbursts of cashew powdery mildew disease during this period (the disease became endemic in Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale districts).

    In Mozambique, El Niño is associated with drought during what is normally the wettest period of the year, from January to March. This year Mozambique is facing a very strong El Niño spell. Large floods provoked by El Niño occurred in January. The 2015/16 seasonal forecast released by the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) indicates that from October to December 2015, the bulk of the country - with the exception northern parts, stands increased chances of receiving near-normal to below-normal rainfall. According to the INAM forecast, the northern parts of the country (Cabo Delgado, Niassa, Nampula and Zambézia provinces) are expecting near- to above-normal rains during this period. During cashew harvest period which occurs from October to February/March, there are increased chances for the occurrence of near- to above-normal rainfall in northern of the country, while in south and central Mozambique there are increased chances that the rainfall received will be near- to below-normal.In Southern Africa, including South Africa and the southern half of Mozambique, the period December to February should be dryer than normal. Several areas of South Africa are very dry already, after a failed monsoon last year; Free State and North West provinces have already been declared drought disaster since mid-September.

    Rainfall in Indonesia was well below average. In September, six Indonesian provinces declared a state of drought emergency. The El Niño-related dry conditions have set the stage for devastating forest fires.

    In Brazil, the Central and North-eastern States recorded droughts and very high temperatures since June, with 940 cities declared in an emergency situation because of drought. In the Southern States, storms and heavy rains have taken a toll with over 30 cities having enacted emergency and public calamity situations. The country is likely to experience a moderate El Niño until February/March 2016. The states of North and Northeast (Ceará, Pará, Piauí) should witness a severe reduction of up to 50% in the volume of rainfall during the entire December through February period. In the Southeast, drought can begin in December and stretch until February 2016, mainly in the south of Minas Gerais and São Paulo. 

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